Fundamental Analysis
Crude oil starts the week with moderate gains after three consecutive weeks of losses. Tensions in the Middle East have escalated after the U.S. imposed new sanctions on individuals and vessels involved in exporting Iranian crude to China, which could impact global supply. However, gains are limited by concerns that Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminium may slow global economic growth and reduce energy demand. Additionally, a stronger U.S. dollar is adding downward pressure on the market.
Key factors to monitor this week:
- Sanctions on Iran: Increased pressure on Iranian exports could tighten global supply.
- U.S.-China trade tensions: New tariffs may impact economic growth and energy demand.
- Strength of the U.S. dollar: A stronger dollar makes crude more expensive for international buyers.
- Russia-Ukraine negotiations: Any progress in talks between the U.S. and Russia could influence the market.
Outlook: The market remains uncertain. A decisive move will depend on the evolution of sanctions and the real impact of trade tariffs on demand.
Technical Analysis
XBRUSD, H2
- Supply Zone (Sell): 76.00
- Demand Zones (Buy): 74.51 and 74.91
Last week, the price formed a double bottom around 74.00, with the most recent validated intraday resistance at 76.47. This suggests that the bearish bias remains intact unless this level is broken.
The recent upside followed a moderate bearish reaction from Thursday’s supply zone near 74.70, leading to a bullish gap at the open this week. This triggered a correction, leaving two local demand zones at 74.51 and 74.91. As long as the price stays above these levels, a rebound toward the volume node around 76.00 is likely.
Selling pressure may resume near 76.00, targeting intraday levels at 74.00 and 73.11, with potential for a broader decline toward 73.00 and 72.55 in a swing move.
Technical Summary:
- Corrective Bullish Scenario: Buying above 74.51 (waiting for the gap to be filled) with targets at 76.00.
- Bearish Continuation Scenario: Selling below 76.00 (waiting for a new rebound) with targets at 74.00, 73.71, 73.00, and 72.55.
Uncovered POC: POC = Point of Control: The level or zone where the highest volume concentration occurred. If a downward move followed this level, it is considered a selling zone and forms resistance. Conversely, if an upward move followed, it is a buying zone, usually located at lows and forming support areas.
