Summary
- Resistance Levels:
- EURUSD faces key resistance at 1.1385, followed by 1.1455 and 1.1520. A clean breakout above these barriers could unlock a fresh leg higher in the pair's bullish trajectory.
- Support Levels:
- Immediate downside protection is seen at 1.1290, with deeper support at 1.1230 and 1.1180. A close below these could flip sentiment bearish.
- Trend Indicators:
- The pair exceeds its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), underscoring a long-term uptrend. Momentum signals like the RSI and MACD remain aligned with bullish continuation.
Fundamental Drivers
- U.S. Dollar Dynamics:
- While the greenback has shown broad weakness amid fiscal jitters and mixed data, a rebound sparked by upbeat consumer confidence has lent it temporary strength.
- Eurozone Outlook:
- The ECB remains cautious, striking a balance between inflation and growth. However, the latest PMI data, showing business activity slipping to 49.5 in May, reveal that business activity is under pressure.
- Geopolitical Relief:
- The U.S. decision to pause tariffs on the EU has reduced trade tensions, offering a mild tailwind for the euro.
EURUSD – H4 Timeframe
The EURUSD 4-hour timeframe chart recently completed a bullish break of structure, with price overshooting the 100-period and 200-period moving average resistance. The ongoing retracement has reached the demand zone responsible for the bullish breakout, while the trendline and moving averages also now serve as a support region for price and a confluence for the bullish sentiment.
Analyst's Expectations:
Direction: Bullish
Target- 1.14198
Invalidation- 1.12435
CONCLUSION
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