2019-11-11 • Updated
USD/JPY has managed to stay above the 55-week MA at 108.30 as geopolitical risks have declined. In addition, the Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda said that the regulator would continue with its accommodative monetary policy and maintain the current pace of asset purchases for some time. So, during the past week demand for the yen has subsided.
Next week the dynamics of Japan’s currency will once again largely depend on external risk sentiment. The first risk is created by French election on Sunday, April, 23. If the pro-euro candidate Emmanuel Marcon fails to pass to the second round of the elections, the yen will strengthen again. If Marcon succeeds, USD/JPY will gain. The second risk is connected with North Korea’s potential nuclear test on April 25. Towards the end of the week, traders will be focused on the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting and press conference which will be held on Thursday. An overwhelming majority of market analysts expect that the central bank will maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy. This will certainly weaken the yen against the USD. In terms of the economic data, we will be waiting for Japan’s CPI figures, household spending and unemployment rate all coming on Friday.
The risk events in coming days might send USD/JPY to test 108.10 (April 17th low), 107.50 and 106.45 (61.8% Fibo level traced from 2016 low). A rebound towards the immediate resistances at 109.45 and 110.00 (psychological level) might occur towards the end of the week. Next resistance lies around 111.10 (38.2% Fibo retracement level).
Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...
Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...
Bearish Scenario: Sales below 78.99 with TP1: 77.93, TP2: 77.45, and upon its breakout TP3: 76.56 and TP4: 75.70 Bullish Scenario: Purchases above 78.00 (wait for a pullback to this area) with TP1: 1679.00 (uncovered POC*), TP2: 79.33, and TP3: 79.66 intraday
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!
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