2021-09-02 • Updated
The day has started with the worse-than-expected Japanese data. The preliminary GDP came out at -7.8%, while the forecast was -7.5%. It marked the third consecutive quarter of contraction. There are two types of GDP: preliminary and final. The preliminary one is the earliest one and thus tends to have the most impact. As a result, USD/JPY modestly surged after the report, but then dropped to the initial level. Traders shrugged of the negative GDP.
What’s even more interesting, the yen won the competition for the #1 safe-haven currency today amid the present dollar weakness. Indeed, investors were observing how US-China tensions were getting worse every day. Two countries delayed the meeting over the phase-one trade agreement, which was scheduled for the weekend. Their disputes have been fueled also by the current Trump’s re-election and TikTok’s ban in the USA. Therefore, investors have chosen the neutral yen instead of the greenback amid the risk-off sentiment.
USD/JPY has broken down the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 106.35. Therefore, it’s likely to move down further and reach the next support at the key psychological mark at 106.00. If it crosses this level, it may fall even deeper to the 23.6% Fibo level at 105.50. On the contrary, if the pair jumps above the 50.0% Fibo level at 107.00, it will open doors towards the next Fibo level at 107.70.
Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...
Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...
Bearish Scenario: Sales below 78.99 with TP1: 77.93, TP2: 77.45, and upon its breakout TP3: 76.56 and TP4: 75.70 Bullish Scenario: Purchases above 78.00 (wait for a pullback to this area) with TP1: 1679.00 (uncovered POC*), TP2: 79.33, and TP3: 79.66 intraday
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!
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