2023-12-20 • Updated
The COVID-19 pandemic led to a substantial labor force transformation in the U.S., marked by 'The Great Reshuffle.' Over 50 million workers resigned in 2022, continuing the trend from 2021, but by August 2023, resignations tapered to 30.5 million. This reshuffling trend indicates a quest for better work-life balance, higher compensation, and a robust company culture. November's unemployment rate slightly dropped to 3.7%, with job gains surpassing expectations at 199,000, led by health care, government, and manufacturing sectors recovering from the United Auto Workers strike. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is closely monitoring industry-specific trends, providing valuable insights for businesses and policymakers. Weekly jobless claims remained steady, with the insured unemployment rate at 1.3%. Notable state variations include New Jersey and California which have the highest insured unemployment rates. As the labor market adapts, businesses and policymakers are keenly observing these indicators to navigate changing workforce dynamics and economic conditions.
GBPUSD as seen from the attached chart above has been rejected off the rally-base-drop supply zone and seems to be aiming for the confluence region of the demand zone, moving average, and trendline support. In this situation, my sentiment remains bearish, until a proper reaction is observed from the confluence region as stated.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bearish
Target: 1.25529
Invalidation: 1.27081
EURUSD, after bouncing off the supply zone, is at the moment facing another bout of rejection from the trendline resistance. The current state of the price action is a consolidation between the two trendlines. A cautionary approach to this trade idea would be to wait for a clear break below the trendline support, whilst an aggressive approach would be to use the recent high as the stop-loss price.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bearish
Target: 1.09867
Invalidation: 1.09108
As for USDCHF, price seems to be on the verge of a clean rejection from the demand zone as projected based on the pin-bar candlestick formation. I’m personally not exceedingly thrilled about this move though, since it does not have as many confluences as I’d prefer to be able to work with. In the meantime, however, I’ll keep my fingers crossed, with a tentative bullish sentiment.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bullish
Target: 0.86671
Invalidation: 0.85785
The trading of CFDs comes at a risk. Thus, to succeed, you have to manage risks properly. To avoid costly mistakes while you look to trade these opportunities, be sure to do your due diligence and manage your risk appropriately.
You can access more of such trade ideas and prompt market updates on the telegram channel.
During the Asian session on Wednesday, the USD/CAD pair rebounded after two days of losses, reaching around 1.3590. This uptick is fueled by a stronger US dollar and lower crude oil prices, which put pressure on the Canadian dollar. The decline in Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices to approximately $80.70 is attributed to...
The Australian Dollar (AUD) rebounds on Monday, despite a slight dip in the US Dollar (USD) and higher US Treasury yields. Investors are eyeing Australian monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February and US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q4 2023. The AUD gains momentum as the ASX 200 Index rises, especially in mining and energy sectors. Additionally, the Aussie...
Gold prices rose on Monday as the US Dollar weakened amidst speculation about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts starting in June. This weakened Dollar was partly due to improved risk sentiment pushing US Treasury yields lower. Despite facing challenges from declining yields, gold prices recovered to nearly $2,170 per troy ounce, driven by the Dollar's weakness. Federal Reserve Chair...
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!
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