2024-03-20 • Updated
Today's FOMC meeting is the highlight of the week, and Antje Praefcke, FX Analyst at Commerzbank, discusses the USD outlook ahead of the announcement. Praefcke believes there's low risk of the Dollar declining post-meeting due to unlikely dovish surprises, especially after strong inflation readings. Instead, the Fed may emphasize caution and confirm market expectations, limiting potential USD losses. The focus shifts to how much further the Dollar can strengthen, depending on how closely the Fed aligns with market expectations and Powell's stance on interest rate cuts during the press conference. Overall, while expectations are present, the extent of Dollar gains remains uncertain.
AUDUSD on the 4-hour chart recently broke above the previous high, as well as the previous trendline resistance. This break of structure thus presents us with a turncoat trendline, as well as a demand zone. Combining the powers of the double trendline support, Fibonacci retracement level, and the drop-base-rally demand zone, I vote in favour of the bulls in this case.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bullish
Target: 0.66075
Invalidation: 0.64764
Similar to what was presented on the AUDUSD chart discussed above, I can see the clear break of structure in the case of the EURUSD chart too; as well as the trendline support and the Fibonacci retracement level. As before, my verdict in this case remains as bullish as earlier mentioned.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bullish
Target: 1.08962
Invalidation: 1.07964
In the case of GBPUSD, we are presented with a clumsy price action movement. Here, price is a couple of pips away from the intended area of support, which only leads me to believe that price would do a nosedive into the demand zone, before we see the actual impact of the FOMC data on the markets.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bearish
Target: 1.26387
Invalidation: 1.27345
CONCLUSION
The trading of CFDs comes at a risk. Thus, to succeed, you have to manage risks properly. To avoid costly mistakes while you look to trade these opportunities, be sure to do your due diligence and manage your risk appropriately.
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Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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