USD/CAD: outlook for May 29 - June 2

USD/CAD was trading choppily in the course of the past week. The loonie got lots of strength in the first half of the week with the Bank of Canada being more positive on the domestic growth outlook, a less hawkish Fed’s meeting minutes and investors’ expectations of supply cuts ahead of the OPEC meeting. The Canadian dollar has given back lots of its earlier gains on Thursday as oil prices dropped after the OPEC agreed to extend production deal by an additional 9 months, but failed to provide deeper cuts. At the current moment, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3440 just a few pips below its weekly opening price.

Next week, traders will get lots of economic data from the American continent. Canada’s data agencies will release the gross domestic figures on Wednesday, trade balance and labor productivity data on Friday. The USD traders will be waiting for the CB consumer confidence report coming on Monday, Tuesday’s Chicago PMI and Friday’s labor market report from the US. The loonie’s high correlation to crude prices will make it very susceptible to the release of US oil inventories and Baker Hughes’ rigs estimate coming on Thursday and Friday respectively.

USD/CAD dropped to 1.3385 in the course of the past week. Falling oil prices helped the pair to rebound sharply to 1.3490. At the present moment, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3445. If it manages to test the lower border of the long-term trading channel located at 1.3390, we expect it slide further towards 1.3345 (100-day MA), or towards the psychologically important support at 1.3300. The nearest resistances can be found at 1.3490, 1.3545 (crossover of the 50 and 200 MAs on the H4 timeframe).

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