2019-11-11 • Updated
Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve chairwoman, is set to deliver her semiannual testimony to Congressional lawmakers on Wednesday and Thursday. Traders will be focused on her view regarding interest rate policy and on the timing of the Fed’s balance sheet wind down. In the latest FOMC meeting minutes, the Fed remained silent about the timing of reducing its reinvestment flows. There was a hint that Fed officials would like to announce the start of the process of trimming asset holdings in a couple of months. That is probably at their meeting in September.
Some analysts believe that Yellen’s testimony will narrow the gap between the Fed’s assessment of the policy outlook and what the what the market is currently anticipating. Investors have doubted the Fed will raise rates for a third time this year, giving just 49.1% odds for a December rate increase and less than 20% odds for a rate hike in precedent months.
Which effect Yellen’s testimony may produce on the USD? This is a bit tough questions. It might happen that nobody would listen what Yellen tells about Fed’s tightening path. Some analysts believe that investors are currently more interested in whether other major central banks will step into tightening cycle or not. The US dollar traders have already got used to the Fed’s continuous hawkishness. So, their reaction to Yellen’s testimony, even if it is hawkish enough, will not produce great moves. In contrast, any signal of monetary policy tightening form the Bank of England, the ECB, or other major central banks would be well reflected in the currencies’ price movements.
Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...
Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...
Brent oil is currently on a bullish trend, facing resistance near $84 and supported by the 200-day EMA. Breaking above this level could lead to a climb towards $90. Short-term support is observed around $80, backed by the 50-day EMA. As summer approaches and travel increases, crude oil tends to benefit from seasonal patterns. Despite temporary setbacks, buying...
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!
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