2019-11-11 • Updated
The British pound fell sharply with a YouGov/Times poll showing the ruling Conservatives could lose 20 seats and their majority in parliament at the coming June election. GBP/USD immediately dropped to 1.2800 from circa 1.2860. At the present moment, the pair is hovering around 1.2808 level. The recent decline is lacking momentum, so the pound may move higher towards the resistances at 1.2845, 1.2890.
The dollar weakened against the safe-haven yen amid European political turmoil overnight. In Tokyo morning, we had preliminary industrial production print for April. The data indicated the best growth since April of 2011. For the yen, the following release wasn’t a reason to gain more strength. So, USD/JPY edged up t0 110.95. There is a soled resistance at 112.50 (the horizontal border of Kumo cloud on the daily timeframe).
The US Dollar Index Futures fell to 97.15 overnight. US Treasury yields missed some points Tuesday after the Fed Governor Lael Brainard said that she is content to hike in June, but if soft inflation data persist, she will reassess the appropriate path of monetary policy. The US PCE released yesterday was in line with market expectations. It didn’t show any lift in underlying pace of inflation despite the tightening of the labor market. There will more Fed officials speaking as we approach the FOMC’s June meeting. Robert Kaplan is due to speak in New York on Wednesday. As to the US economic data, pay closer attention to the Chicago PMI, pending home sales and Beige Book.
Aussie dipped lower in Tokyo session with missing results for local bank’s retail sales estimate (official data will be released tomorrow). Additional headwind for AUD – falling iron ore futures in China.
EUR/USD is trading lower at 1.1165 from yesterday’s high at 1.1205. Yesterday we got the release of German inflation data that fell short of market expectations. A report that ECB policymakers might upgrade their economic risk assessment at the upcoming meeting kept the possibility of a change in forward guidance despite Draghi’s dovish tone yesterday. As downward momentum clearly vanished, we still observe a weak undertone to the current price action and would continue to hold the same view unless the single currency rises above 1.1190.
USD/CAD was a bit lower in the session. Now it is around 1.3450. Today’s focus will on the Canadian GDP figures coming at 3:30 pm MT time.
Oil futures skipped a few points sliding down from $52.35 to $ 51.90 in the Asian session as raising output from Libya added to concerns about increasing US production that make OPEC-led output cut deal inefficient. According to Libya’s National Oil Corporation, the country production will rise to 800, 000 barrels. This would boost Libya’s exports and keep oil prices under pressure.
Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...
Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...
Brent oil is currently on a bullish trend, facing resistance near $84 and supported by the 200-day EMA. Breaking above this level could lead to a climb towards $90. Short-term support is observed around $80, backed by the 50-day EMA. As summer approaches and travel increases, crude oil tends to benefit from seasonal patterns. Despite temporary setbacks, buying...
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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