2019-11-11 • Updated
The euro suffered substantial losses overnight after we received softer than expected German and Spanish inflation releases. Decreasing inflation rate prove that the ECB still needs a very substantial degree of monetary policy accommodation and relieves markets superfluous idle talks about the QE tapering. The US economic data was a mixed bag with solid GDP figures and rising number of unemployment claims. EUR/USD dropped to 1.0675 overnight. The technical outlook for the pair is neutral. The prices will likely continue consolidating within the range of 1.0655 – 1.0690. Today traders will be watching for the euro area monthly inflation readings. Consensus forecasts indicate slight declines. The figures are usually scrutinized by the ECB officials trying to assess the sustainability of prices pressures. So, in case of disappointing headlines, the euro might head into the negative territory.
The yen was the main mover in the past trading sessions. USD/JPY spiked to 112.20 after we received a rather disappointing data on Japan’s household spending and core CPI. Then, USD lost its ground against the yen and slid to 111.80. US dollar watchers will be waiting for core PCE reading and personal spending data which are due at 12:30 MT time. The Chicago PMI and final University Michigan consumer sentiments are also expected tonight. Another focus will be on the speeches of Fed’s officials.
In the early hours of Tokyo morning, we got some comments from the Australian prudential regulator (APRA) on the growth in housing credit. Surging house prices have been a concern for the Australian government. APRA will try to tighten up lending for housing. What does this news mean for traders? It means that the Reserve Bank of Australia might cut rates further clipping Aussie’s wings. This news didn’t cause and outcry from AUD, but they should be taken into consideration as we approach the next RBA meeting. AUD/USD dropped to 0.7635, then, partially regained its losses having advanced to 0.7640. There is still a room for further expansion towards 0.7660/0.7680 levels.
GBP/USD rose to 1.2475 in the Asian session. Many analysts believe that the pound can still move higher in the near-term due to a squeeze on existing short GBP and investors’ disbelief in Trump’s ability to push through his pro-growth policies. The immediate resistance can be found at 1.2475. on the downside, there are plenty of supports at 1.2410, 1.2360. They might serve the good turn if today US data beats market’s expectations.
US dollar/loonie was trading choppily in the past sessions trying to imitate the movements of oil prices. USD/CAD dropped to 1.3320, then, regained its ground and rose to 1.3340. Brent oil futures slipped a few points in the Asian session having fallen to $52.80 from yesterday’s high at $53.10. A tailwind for oil was the Kuwait’s support of the prolongation of the OPEC-led production cut deal.
Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...
Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...
Brent oil is currently on a bullish trend, facing resistance near $84 and supported by the 200-day EMA. Breaking above this level could lead to a climb towards $90. Short-term support is observed around $80, backed by the 50-day EMA. As summer approaches and travel increases, crude oil tends to benefit from seasonal patterns. Despite temporary setbacks, buying...
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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