2019-11-11 • Updated
Growing appetite for risk meant safe-haven assets fell out of favor. Global equities rallied to an all-time high this month as European political risk abated ("dog days are over" for Europe as Florence Welch from Florence and the machine would say). US President Donald Trump is preparing to unveil a tax plan today that would include a slashing of the of the corporate tax rate and lower taxes on offshore earnings stockpiled by US businesses oversee. The threat of a US government shutdown was eliminated after Trump consented not to demand fundings for his border wall with Mexico. Overall, the absence of the fresh news can be a lull before the storm as investors wait for some risks this week with Bank of Japan and European Central bank meetings, geopolitical tensions simmering around North Korea.
In currency markets, the euro rallied to 1.0945. The near-term outlook is tilted to the upside, but the single currency should move well above 1.2950 to indicate that an extension towards 1.1000 is not far off. Tomorrow traders will be watching for the European Central Bank meeting. While most analysts don’t expect extreme changes in the ECB’s monetary policy stance, they might send a small signal towards reducing the stimulus they provide to spur Eurozone economic growth.
Aussie was the main loser of the Asian session. It dropped to 0. 7520 on the Australian CPI data. Annual core inflation data accelerated to just below the lower end of the RBA’s target. The central bank might be willing to introduce a cut tax at the upcoming meeting. Fortunately for AUD, the Reserve Bank of Australia tend to focus on the labor market conditions (job growth and wage growth) which are still slow for the RBA to cut rates.
The British pound is consolidating in the range of 1.2750 – 1.2900 (last week high). It is a sign that the recent upward momentum is waning, and that a slide towards the nearest supports at 1.2752, 1.2620. if GBP manages to reclaim 1.2900, it might rise higher towards 1.2950. yesterday the UK’s Telegraph reported that Britain will have to pay into the EU budget up until 2020 in exchange for a sensible EU offer on a transition deal. The pound stayed intact after the announcement. This news might be important further.
USD/CAD spiked to 1.3625 overnight on the news that the US placed tariffs on Canada’s soft lumber exports. Canadian PM Trudeau refuted the baseless allegations of US commerce department on lumber and claimed that he will vigorously defend interests of softwood industry in Canada.
US crude futures lost a few points after yesterday’s industry report showed a surprise increase in the US stockpiles. Crude oil WTI futures were down to $49.45. Brent oil futures are quite steady. They hover around $52.50 level.
Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...
Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...
Brent oil is currently on a bullish trend, facing resistance near $84 and supported by the 200-day EMA. Breaking above this level could lead to a climb towards $90. Short-term support is observed around $80, backed by the 50-day EMA. As summer approaches and travel increases, crude oil tends to benefit from seasonal patterns. Despite temporary setbacks, buying...
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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