2019-11-11 • Updated
The British pound is hovering around key resistance line at 1.2495 being almost intact after the UK labor market report. The data was a mixed bag with jobless claims rising to the record 25.5K unseen from 2011, steady unemployment rate and upbeat wages.
Yesterday, GBP/USD rose to its monthly high on the better-than-expected inflation figures that came out of the UK. Many analysts believe that consumer prices will continue rising thanks to weak pound and surging oil prices. However, the heightened inflation rate will unlikely push the Bank of England to tighten its monetary policy. BoE’s officials said at their last meeting that they won’t be in rush to raise interest rates in the near-term future. It seems that they are prepared to tolerate inflation above the 2% target. So, we don’t expect them undertaking any measures until inflation hits at least 3%.
There are plenty of news on the Brexit front. EU members mainly backed the wording contained in draft negotiating guidelines written by European Union President Donald Tusk after Theresa May formally notified the European officials about the UK’s intentions to leave the union. The formal approval of the guidelines will be delivered at the summit in Brussels on April 29. But even after the release of the EU negotiating stance, the talks on the EU-UK future trade relationships will probably start after elections in France and then Germany. This would offer the British pound a short respite to regain its value in the near-term future.
The technical outlook for GBP/USD after the pair broke the range of strong resistances at 1.2463 (the diagonal trendline and 100-H4 MA), 1.2495 (the upper border of Ichimoku cloud on H4 timeframe) is bullish. There is a room for a further upsurge to 1.2555 (April 3 high). On the downside, the immediate supports can be found at 1.2433, 1.2375 (200-H4 MA).
Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...
Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...
Bearish Scenario: Sales below 78.99 with TP1: 77.93, TP2: 77.45, and upon its breakout TP3: 76.56 and TP4: 75.70 Bullish Scenario: Purchases above 78.00 (wait for a pullback to this area) with TP1: 1679.00 (uncovered POC*), TP2: 79.33, and TP3: 79.66 intraday
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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