GBP: clearer skies ahead

GBP: clearer skies ahead

2022-12-20 • Updated

Virus status

Thanks to the rapid deployment of the vaccines, the virus dynamics in the UK are consistently improving. As the below charts show, the number of infections is dropping as does the mortality rate. At the moment, it’s the primary fundamental factor that lets observers assume the coming of economic recovery in the UK.

1.png

Source: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Labor market

In the meantime, unemployment appears to have passed the peak in December-January – that corresponds to the peak of infections in the same period. The number of employed people grew almost 70,000 in February giving reason to assume that the jobless rate will be less than 5% in that month. In general, companies are reported to take an upward curve as they are hiring more in expectation of the ending lockdown and improved humanitarian and, hence, economic environment.

2.png

Inflation

In the meantime, inflation eased to 0.4% in the UK. Analysts say it’s the result of the drop in the prices of clothes and leisure items that saw lower demand recently. However, observers comment that the stockpiles of cash accumulated over lockdowns and lower consumer activity may soon spur the economy as people are expected to spend more.  The Bank of England’s target is 2% for the first part of the year. The Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s policy on continuing furlough payments to the UK citizens may help reach that objective on time.   

3.png

The pound

In recent months, the GBP gained significantly against the USD and the EUR. That is, despite all the Brexit hurdles and the worst economic crisis in the UK for the last 300 years. Optimism about the British economy suggests further strengthening of the pound beyond its current levels. However, another version is that as the global economy recovers with the USD and the EUR restoring their value, the pound will get back to its pre-virus levels: GBP/USD to the area of 1.30 and EUR/GBP to 0.90. The coming months will confirm – or disprove – if there will be signs of the trends that would correspond to this assumption. In any case, the economy is fundamentally on a clear recovery path in the UK. 

4.png

                                                                                              LOG IN

Similar

Oil: Russia-Ukraine Crisis Could Boost Oil Prices
Oil: Russia-Ukraine Crisis Could Boost Oil Prices

Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...

WTI and Brent React To a Key Pivot
WTI and Brent React To a Key Pivot

Brent oil is currently on a bullish trend, facing resistance near $84 and supported by the 200-day EMA. Breaking above this level could lead to a climb towards $90. Short-term support is observed around $80, backed by the 50-day EMA. As summer approaches and travel increases, crude oil tends to benefit from seasonal patterns. Despite temporary setbacks, buying...

Latest news

USD: Powell Speaks on Cutting Interest Rates
USD: Powell Speaks on Cutting Interest Rates

Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...

WTT: Currency Pairs To Trade In April
WTT: Currency Pairs To Trade In April

Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.

Deposit with your local payment systems

Data collection notice

FBS maintains a record of your data to run this website. By pressing the “Accept” button, you agree to our Privacy policy.

Callback

A manager will call you shortly.

Change number

Your request is accepted.

A manager will call you shortly.

Next callback request for this phone number
will be available in

If you have an urgent issue please contact us via
Live chat

Internal error. Please try again later

Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!

You are using an older version of your browser.

Update it to the latest version or try another one for a safer, more comfortable and productive trading experience.

Safari Chrome Firefox Opera