2022-12-15 • Updated
The global energy crisis spreads around the globe. At the end of December, XBR/USD exceeded $80 per barrel for the first time since November, and in January, it even exceeded $85, also for the first time since November. On Friday, January 14, the price has reached $86, the highest point since October 2018.
It becomes evident that the possibility of additional supply of oil on the market in the short term may be less than previously thought due to significant underinvestment in the sector over the past six years.
At the end of last year, Russian oil companies stated that they were operating at the limit of their production. Moreover, OPEC + potential for production increase could be much less than the 4 million barrels per day growth planned in 2022.
According to the International Energy Agency data, the current shortage of supply in the oil market is 3 million barrels per day, and the expected growth in demand this year is 3.4 million barrels per day.
The second factor is that the Omicron strain is much milder despite being more contagious and may not lead to severe and long-term lockdowns.
According to these facts, there is a high probability that the deficit will remain in the short term.
XBR/USD daily chart
XBR/USD has been moving in the ascending channel since March 2020. At the moment, it is a moment of truth for XBR/USD. If the price manages to hold above $85.5 for at least two days, it will reach the channel's upper border at $95, which is 161.8 Fibonacci level, without any resistance.
Otherwise, the price might head towards the bottom border of the channel. In this case, targets will be at $79, $77, and $75.5, which are 61.8, 50.0, 38.2 Fibonacci levels, respectively.
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Brent oil is currently on a bullish trend, facing resistance near $84 and supported by the 200-day EMA. Breaking above this level could lead to a climb towards $90. Short-term support is observed around $80, backed by the 50-day EMA. As summer approaches and travel increases, crude oil tends to benefit from seasonal patterns. Despite temporary setbacks, buying...
Amid uncertainty driven by geopolitical events, oil prices surged to record highs. However, a correction in oil prices is observed with a gradual improvement in the situation in the Middle East and an increase in demand. The question facing investors is whether there are prerequisites for further price growth or if everything depends on the dynamics of the political landscape. In this article, we will explore the impact of recent events on the global oil market and the prospects for developing this crucial commodity sector.
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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