What is the chance that the RBA will change interest rates?

On Tuesday, February 6 at 5:30 MT time, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce interest rates for the first time this year after the break in January. Experts do not expect any changes this time. If we look at statistics, the RBA had not changed interest rates since September 2016.

Despite the fact that the economic growth of Australia is firm and the labor market has improved, inflation data does not give reasons to the RBA to change the interest rates. In the fourth quarter CPI rose less than anticipated by 0.1 percentage points and still it is lower than RBA’s 2-3% target.

The Australian dollar is quite volatile now. On the daily chart AUD/USD, we can see that moving inside the upward trend, Aussie achieved its highest point at 0.8135 since May 2015. After that, it started falling, when received the support at 38.2 Fibonacci retracements and changed its direction again. Although the RBA is not going to raise the interest rates this time, experts expect upbeat comments. It supports the Aussie.

Traders should take into account that Aussie will be volatile on Tuesday because several important figures will be announced.  Retail sales and trade balance will be published before interest rates at 2:30 MT time.

Also, on Friday, February 9 at 2:30 MT time, the RBA will give a more detailed economic outlook, delivering Monetary Policy Statement.

Making a conclusion, we can say that although the RBA had not been changing interest rates for a long time, and is not anticipated to do it tomorrow, analysts expect it this year for sure. The growth of the economy and inflation that is supported by the labor market and rising demand for commodities can lead to the increase of interest rates.