USD/JPY: outlook for May 1-5
USD/JPY hit 111.75 in the beginning of the past week boosted by a market-friendly first round French election result. Then, USD erased some of its gains following the release of one-page Trump's tax plan. On Thursday, the Bank of Japan released its monetary policy statement. Policymakers kept their interest rate and long-term yield target unchanged pledging to maintain its massive monetary stimulus until inflation rises to 2%. A flood of first-tier data the day after the Bank of Japan’s meeting indicated that the modest recovery in Japan’s economy is continuing, yet inflation is still low. USD/JPY stayed almost untouched following the data releases.
Next week the US dollar will be a bellwether of the pair since yen’s economic calendar is extremely light. Japan’s banks will be on holidays from Wednesday to Friday. On Monday, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will speak at the Milken Conference. His remarks have become proven market drivers since Trump’s inauguration, so you should probably cast a glance at the headlines of his speech. The Fed’s rate announcement and US labor market report will be in the spotlight next week. Markets don’t expect significant changes from the Fed’s policymakers this time. US NFP, unemployment rate, and wage growth are expected to produce a greater effect. Being overwhelmed with the US events and economic releases, don’t overlook the BoJ’s annual inflation figures coming on Tuesday.
On the USD/JPY technical chart, the short-term consolidation phase is still intact. 50-day SMA located near 111.80 might once again attract buying interest. If quotes manage to clear this hurdle, there will be a continuation of the rally towards 113.40, 114.00. The downside potential is limited to 109.90 (100-H4 MA). In case of the US government shutdown, escalation of global tensions, or disappointing economic figures, the quotes might slide towards 109.90, 109.10 levels.
