The most important events for the following week. What to expect?
The US Retail sales
May 16th, 14:30 GMT+2.
The US Retail sales are published on Tuesday, May 16th.
Economists expect the fact to become +0.7% in April.
According to the Redbook research, consumption in the US is slowing down. The average growth was 1.4%. A month ago, consumption was growing by 3% on average. This is a negative signal.
On the other hand, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average hourly earnings in April increased. It means that households have more money to spend.
ISM Manufacturing Prices in April increased, while non-Manufacturing prices remained almost at the same level. This is also a signal that consumption may become better.
Logically, economists think the Retail Sales Index is better than the previous one.
If Retail sales are released worse than 0.7%, the USD may fall.
Instruments to trade: EURUSD, USDCAD, XAUUSD
European CPI
May 17th, 11:00 GMT+2.
The European inflation is published on Wednesday, May 17th.
Eurozone consumer inflation expectation dropped to 15.1% (by 370 bp).
The European retail sales in March started falling – consumption is slowing down.
Oil price in April was falling. As a result, we may expect the CPI fact to be lower than the forecast. In this case, EURUSD may reverse and start dipping.
Instruments to trade: EURUSD, EURAUD, EURNZD
The US Existing home sales (April)
May 18th, 16:00 GMT+2.
The mortgage rate in the US keeps beating its highs. The rate is at 6.5%. The absolute maximum was fixed in October 2022 at 7.16%.
Mortgage applications in April were slowing down (according to Mortgage Bankers Association).
New home sales grew slightly in March after a substantial drawdown in February.
Existing home sales in April will be lower than in March.
The USD is pricing +4.35M. If the fact is even lower, the US dollar will fall.
Instruments to trade: EURUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY
The Canadian Retail Sales (March)
May 19th, 14:30 GMT+2.
Economists think that retail sales in March will drop by 0.6%. Core retail sales are expected to be at -0.1%.
The preliminary fact of Wholesale Sales in March was -0.4% (almost at 0% level). CPI grew by 0.5% MoM.
The situation in the labor market improved. The unemployment rate decreased to 5% — the more labor force on the market – the more considerable consumption.
We think that economists are too pessimistic about the Retail sales in Canada for March. The fact may be higher than -0.6%. The Canadian dollar may rise.
Instruments to trade: USDCAD, EURCAD, AUDCAD